论文标题
用于乘车需求估算的数据融合方法:带有采样和内生性校正的离散选择模型
A Data Fusion Approach for Ride-sourcing Demand Estimation: A Discrete Choice Model with Sampling and Endogeneity Corrections
论文作者
论文摘要
在过去的十年中,Uber和Didi等公司提供的乘车服务迅速发展。了解对这些服务的需求对于计划和管理现代运输系统至关重要。现有研究开发了由于数据可用性有限而导致乘坐乘货源需求估算的统计模型。这些模型缺乏微观经济理论中的基础,忽略了乘车与其他旅行模式的竞争,并且不能无缝集成到现有的基于基于活动的个人级别(分类)基于活动的模型中,以评估乘车服务的系统级别的影响。在本文中,我们介绍并采用一种方法来使用离散选择模型和多个数据源来估算分类级别的乘车需求。我们首先在美国芝加哥构建了一个基于旅行模式的选择样本,并通过公开可用的乘车和出租车旅行记录来丰富家庭旅行调查。然后,我们通过采样和内生性校正来制定多元极值的离散选择,以解释来自多个数据源的估计样本和乘车系统中的供应端约束和激增定价机制引起的估计样本。我们对构造数据集的分析揭示了对各种社会经济,土地使用和建筑环境特征对乘车需求的影响的见解。我们还针对旅行成本和时间来得出乘车需求的弹性。最后,我们说明了如何使用开发的模型来量化乘车政策和法规的福利含义,例如终止某些类型的服务和引入乘车税。
Ride-sourcing services offered by companies like Uber and Didi have grown rapidly in the last decade. Understanding the demand for these services is essential for planning and managing modern transportation systems. Existing studies develop statistical models for ride-sourcing demand estimation at an aggregate level due to limited data availability. These models lack foundations in microeconomic theory, ignore competition of ride-sourcing with other travel modes, and cannot be seamlessly integrated into existing individual-level (disaggregate) activity-based models to evaluate system-level impacts of ride-sourcing services. In this paper, we present and apply an approach for estimating ride-sourcing demand at a disaggregate level using discrete choice models and multiple data sources. We first construct a sample of trip-based mode choices in Chicago, USA by enriching household travel survey with publicly available ride-sourcing and taxi trip records. We then formulate a multivariate extreme value-based discrete choice with sampling and endogeneity corrections to account for the construction of the estimation sample from multiple data sources and endogeneity biases arising from supply-side constraints and surge pricing mechanisms in ride-sourcing systems. Our analysis of the constructed dataset reveals insights into the influence of various socio-economic, land use and built environment features on ride-sourcing demand. We also derive elasticities of ride-sourcing demand relative to travel cost and time. Finally, we illustrate how the developed model can be employed to quantify the welfare implications of ride-sourcing policies and regulations such as terminating certain types of services and introducing ride-sourcing taxes.