论文标题
使用空间分类的人口估计值来确定微观人群数字的框架
A framework to determine micro-level population figures using spatially disaggregated population estimates
论文作者
论文摘要
大约一半的世界人口已经生活在城市地区。预计到2050年,大约70%的世界人口将居住在城市中。除此之外,大多数发展中国家没有可靠的人口普查数字,并且定期人口普查非常昂贵。例如,在非洲人口最多的国家,尼日利亚是在2006年进行的最后一个十年人口普查。在当地层面上,近未能获得的人口数字的相关性不能过分强调,而对于政府机构和非政府组织的广泛申请,包括服务和危险性疾病的风险估算人口,以及危险性疾病和疾病的危害和危害性疾病。本研究使用Grid3(用于开发的地理参考基础设施和人口统计数据)在空间上分解了人口数据估计,本研究提出了一个框架,用于在较大的地理管辖区内汇总在微观水平的人群数字。 Python,QGI和机器学习技术用于数据可视化,空间分析和区域统计。尼日利亚拉各斯岛被用作案例研究,以证明如何在最低的行政管辖权下获得更精确的人口估计,并消除计算中对立参数引起的歧义。我们还展示了该框架如何用作估计城市基础服务的承载能力,例如医疗保健,住房,卫生设施,教育,水等。拟议的框架将帮助城市规划师和政府机构使用更准确的数据来更好地计划和管理城市。
About half of the world population already live in urban areas. It is projected that by 2050, approximately 70% of the world population will live in cities. In addition to this, most developing countries do not have reliable population census figures, and periodic population censuses are extremely resource expensive. In Africa's most populous country, Nigeria, for instance, the last decennial census was conducted in 2006. The relevance of near-accurate population figures at the local levels cannot be overemphasized for a broad range of applications by government agencies and non-governmental organizations, including the planning and delivery of services, estimating populations at risk of hazards or infectious diseases, and disaster relief operations. Using GRID3 (Geo-Referenced Infrastructure and Demographic Data for Development) high-resolution spatially disaggregated population data estimates, this study proposed a framework for aggregating population figures at micro levels within a larger geographic jurisdiction. Python, QGIS, and machine learning techniques were used for data visualization, spatial analysis, and zonal statistics. Lagos Island, Nigeria was used as a case study to demonstrate how to obtain a more precise population estimate at the lowest administrative jurisdiction and eliminate ambiguity caused by antithetical parameters in the calculations. We also demonstrated how the framework can be used as a benchmark for estimating the carrying capacities of urban basic services like healthcare, housing, sanitary facilities, education, water etc. The proposed framework would help urban planners and government agencies to plan and manage cities better using more accurate data.