论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Neural Augmented Kalman Filtering with Bollinger Bands for Pairs Trading
论文作者
论文摘要
Pairs Trading是一种贸易技术家族,可以根据监视资产对之间的关系来确定其政策。一种常见的对交易方法依赖于将配对关系描述为具有高斯噪声的线性空间状态(SS)模型。该表示形式有助于使用Kalman过滤器(KF)提取具有低复杂性和潜伏期的财务指标,然后使用诸如Bollinger Bands(BB)等经典策略进行处理。但是,这样的SS模型本质上是近似和不匹配的,通常会降低收入。在这项工作中,我们提出了Kalmennet的Bollinger Bands对交易(KBPT),这是一项深入学习辅助政策,可扩大KF辅助BB交易的运作。 KBPT的设计是通过制定扩展的SS模型,用于对它们的关系,将其关系近似为部分协整。该SS模型是通过基于Kalmannet体系结构的专用神经网络来增强KF-BB交易的交易政策来利用的。由此产生的KBPT以两阶段的方式进行了培训,该培训首先以无监督的方式对跟踪算法进行独立于交易任务进行调整,然后进行适应以跟踪财务指标以最大程度地提高收入,同时使用可区分的映射来近似BB。因此,KBPT利用数据来克服SS模型的近似性质,将KF-BB策略转换为可训练的模型。我们从经验上证明,与基于模型和数据驱动的基准测试相比,我们提出的KBPT有系统地产生改善的收入。
Pairs trading is a family of trading techniques that determine their policies based on monitoring the relationships between pairs of assets. A common pairs trading approach relies on describing the pair-wise relationship as a linear Space State (SS) model with Gaussian noise. This representation facilitates extracting financial indicators with low complexity and latency using a Kalman Filter (KF), that are then processed using classic policies such as Bollinger Bands (BB). However, such SS models are inherently approximated and mismatched, often degrading the revenue. In this work, we propose KalmenNet-aided Bollinger bands Pairs Trading (KBPT), a deep learning aided policy that augments the operation of KF-aided BB trading. KBPT is designed by formulating an extended SS model for pairs trading that approximates their relationship as holding partial co-integration. This SS model is utilized by a trading policy that augments KF-BB trading with a dedicated neural network based on the KalmanNet architecture. The resulting KBPT is trained in a two-stage manner which first tunes the tracking algorithm in an unsupervised manner independently of the trading task, followed by its adaptation to track the financial indicators to maximize revenue while approximating BB with a differentiable mapping. KBPT thus leverages data to overcome the approximated nature of the SS model, converting the KF-BB policy into a trainable model. We empirically demonstrate that our proposed KBPT systematically yields improved revenue compared with model-based and data-driven benchmarks over various different assets.