论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Searching for structure in the binary black hole spin distribution
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
The spins of black holes in merging binaries can reveal information related to the formation and evolution of these systems through their gravitational wave emission. Combining events to infer the astrophysical distribution of black hole spins allows us to determine the relative contribution from different formation scenarios to the population. Many previous works have modeled spin population distributions using parametric models. While these are valuable approaches when the observed population is small, they make strong assumptions about the shape of the underlying distribution and are highly susceptible to biases due to mismodeling. The results obtained with such parametric models are only valid if the allowed shape of the distribution is well-motivated (i.e. for astrophysical reasons). In this work, we relax these prior assumptions and model the spin distributions using a more data-driven approach, modeling these distributions with flexible cubic spline interpolants in order to allow for capturing structures that the parametric models cannot. We find that adding this flexibility to the model substantially increases the uncertainty in the inferred distributions, but find a general trend for lower support at high spin magnitude and a spin tilt distribution consistent with isotropic orientations. We infer that 62 - 87% of black holes have spin magnitudes less than a = 0.5, and 27- 50% of black holes exhibit negative $χ_{\rm eff}$. Using the inferred $χ_{\rm eff}$ distribution, we place a conservative upper limit of 37% for the contribution of hierarchical mergers to the astrophysical BBH population. Additionally, we find that artifacts from unconverged Monte Carlo integrals in the likelihood can manifest as spurious peaks and structures in inferred distributions, mandating the use of a sufficient number of samples when using Monte Carlo integration for population inference.