论文标题
冰川:用于纵向成像研究的基于格兰杰和基于学习的因果关系分析
GLACIAL: Granger and Learning-based Causality Analysis for Longitudinal Imaging Studies
论文作者
论文摘要
Granger框架对于发现时变信号的因果关系很有用。但是,大多数Granger因果关系(GC)方法都是用于密集采样的时间表数据的。纵向研究设计是一个实质上不同的环境,尤其是在医学成像中常见,其中遵循了多个受试者,并且随着时间的流逝而稀少。纵向研究通常会跟踪几种生物标志物,这些生物标志物可能受非线性动力学的控制,这些动力学可能具有特定的特定特性并表现出直接和间接原因。此外,现实世界中的纵向数据常常遭受广泛的缺失。 GC方法不适合解决这些问题。在本文中,我们提出了一种名为Glacial的方法(纵向研究的基于Granger和基于学习的因果关系分析),以通过将GC与多任务神经预测模型结合在一起来填补这一方法上的差距。冰川将受试者视为独立样本,并将模型对持有受试者的平均预测准确性与探测因果关系联系起来。输入辍学和模型插值用于有效地学习大量变量之间的非线性动态关系并分别处理缺失值。对真正的纵向医学成像数据集进行的大量模拟和实验显示了冰川跳动的竞争基准并确认其效用。我们的代码可从https://github.com/mnhng/glacial获得。
The Granger framework is useful for discovering causal relations in time-varying signals. However, most Granger causality (GC) methods are developed for densely sampled timeseries data. A substantially different setting, particularly common in medical imaging, is the longitudinal study design, where multiple subjects are followed and sparsely observed over time. Longitudinal studies commonly track several biomarkers, which are likely governed by nonlinear dynamics that might have subject-specific idiosyncrasies and exhibit both direct and indirect causes. Furthermore, real-world longitudinal data often suffer from widespread missingness. GC methods are not well-suited to handle these issues. In this paper, we propose an approach named GLACIAL (Granger and LeArning-based CausalIty Analysis for Longitudinal studies) to fill this methodological gap by marrying GC with a multi-task neural forecasting model. GLACIAL treats subjects as independent samples and uses the model's average prediction accuracy on hold-out subjects to probe causal links. Input dropout and model interpolation are used to efficiently learn nonlinear dynamic relationships between a large number of variables and to handle missing values respectively. Extensive simulations and experiments on a real longitudinal medical imaging dataset show GLACIAL beating competitive baselines and confirm its utility. Our code is available at https://github.com/mnhng/GLACIAL.