论文标题
使用大量的调查期望来预测欧元区通货膨胀
Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们使用计量经济学模型来预测欧元区通货膨胀及其主要组成部分，该模型利用了对欧盟委员会业务和消费者调查的调查期望的大量时间序列。为了估算如此巨大的模型，我们使用计算统计数据的最新进展来进行后仿真和推理。我们的发现表明，包括各种公司和消费者对未来经济发展的看法提供了有用的信息，以预测价格并评估通货膨胀的尾巴风险。这些预测性的改进不仅是由与预期通货膨胀相关的调查引起的，而且还来自与一般经济环境有关的其他问题。最后，我们发现公司对未来的期望似乎比消费者期望更具预测性内容。
In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make estimation of such a huge model tractable, we use recent advances in computational statistics to carry out posterior simulation and inference. Our findings suggest that the inclusion of a wide range of firms and consumers' opinions about future economic developments offers useful information to forecast prices and assess tail risks to inflation. These predictive improvements do not only arise from surveys related to expected inflation but also from other questions related to the general economic environment. Finally, we find that firms' expectations about the future seem to have more predictive content than consumer expectations.
