论文标题
模型变性和绑架决策
Modelplasticity and Abductive Decision Making
论文作者
论文摘要
“所有模型都是错误的，但有些是有用的”（George Box 1979）。但是，如何从不完美的模型开始找到那些有用的呢？如何做出具有不完美模型的知情数据驱动决定？这些基本问题在几乎所有经验领域中似乎都普遍存在，包括经济学，金融，市场营销，医疗保健，气候变化，国防计划和运营研究。本文提出了一种现代方法（以两个核心思想为基础：绑架思维和密度 - 塑性原则）和实用指南，以系统的方式解决这些问题。
`All models are wrong but some are useful' (George Box 1979). But, how to find those useful ones starting from an imperfect model? How to make informed data-driven decisions equipped with an imperfect model? These fundamental questions appear to be pervasive in virtually all empirical fields -- including economics, finance, marketing, healthcare, climate change, defense planning, and operations research. This article presents a modern approach (builds on two core ideas: abductive thinking and density-sharpening principle) and practical guidelines to tackle these issues in a systematic manner.
