论文标题

基准在时间序列预测中深入学习可解释性

Benchmarking Deep Learning Interpretability in Time Series Predictions

论文作者

Ismail, Aya Abdelsalam, Gunady, Mohamed, Bravo, Héctor Corrada, Feizi, Soheil

论文摘要

显着方法可广泛使用,以突出模型预测中输入特征的重要性。这些方法主要用于视觉和语言任务,它们在时间序列数据中的应用相对尚未探索。在本文中,我们着手广泛比较各种神经体系结构的各种基于显着性的可解释性方法的性能,包括复发性神经网络,时间卷积网络和变形金刚在合成时间序列数据的新基准中。我们提出并报告多个指标,以经验评估显着性方法的性能,以使用精度(即确定的特征是否包含有意义的信号)和召回(即信号识别为重要的特征的数量)来检测特征随时间的重要性。 Through several experiments, we show that (i) in general, network architectures and saliency methods fail to reliably and accurately identify feature importance over time in time series data, (ii) this failure is mainly due to the conflation of time and feature domains, and (iii) the quality of saliency maps can be improved substantially by using our proposed two-step temporal saliency rescaling (TSR) approach that first calculates the importance of each time step before calculating每个功能在时间步骤中的重要性。

Saliency methods are used extensively to highlight the importance of input features in model predictions. These methods are mostly used in vision and language tasks, and their applications to time series data is relatively unexplored. In this paper, we set out to extensively compare the performance of various saliency-based interpretability methods across diverse neural architectures, including Recurrent Neural Network, Temporal Convolutional Networks, and Transformers in a new benchmark of synthetic time series data. We propose and report multiple metrics to empirically evaluate the performance of saliency methods for detecting feature importance over time using both precision (i.e., whether identified features contain meaningful signals) and recall (i.e., the number of features with signal identified as important). Through several experiments, we show that (i) in general, network architectures and saliency methods fail to reliably and accurately identify feature importance over time in time series data, (ii) this failure is mainly due to the conflation of time and feature domains, and (iii) the quality of saliency maps can be improved substantially by using our proposed two-step temporal saliency rescaling (TSR) approach that first calculates the importance of each time step before calculating the importance of each feature at a time step.

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