论文标题
使用贴片生成土地使用模拟（加上）模型了解可持续土地扩展的驱动因素：中国武汉的案例研究
Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China
论文作者
论文摘要
细胞自动机（CA）被广泛用于对复杂土地使用和土地覆盖（LULC）系统中的动态进行建模。过去的CA模型研究重点是改进技术建模程序，只有少数研究试图提高我们对LULC改变基础的非线性关系的理解。许多CA模型缺乏模拟多种土地使用类型的详细补丁演变的能力。这项研究介绍了生成斑块的土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型，该模型集成了土地扩展分析策略和基于多类随机斑块种子的CA模型。这些被用来了解土地扩张的驱动因素，并调查中国武汉的景观动态。与其他测试的CA模型相比，提出的模型达到了更高的模拟精度和与真实景观更相似的景观模式指标。土地扩展分析策略还发现了一些基本的过渡规则，例如，在没有受到人类活动的强烈影响的情况下，最有可能发现草地，而落叶林地往往会在动脉道路附近生长。我们还通过将所提出的模型与多目标编程相结合，在不同的优化方案下预测了土地利用的结构。结果表明，提出的模型可以帮助决策者管理未来的土地使用动态，从而实现更可持续的土地利用模式，以供未来的发展。 Plus软件已在https://github.com/hpscil/patch-generating_land_use_simulation_model提供
Cellular Automata (CA) are widely used to model the dynamics within complex land use and land cover (LULC) systems. Past CA model research has focused on improving the technical modeling procedures, and only a few studies have sought to improve our understanding of the nonlinear relationships that underlie LULC change. Many CA models lack the ability to simulate the detailed patch evolution of multiple land use types. This study introduces a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model that integrates a land expansion analysis strategy and a CA model based on multi-type random patch seeds. These were used to understand the drivers of land expansion and to investigate the landscape dynamics in Wuhan, China. The proposed model achieved a higher simulation accuracy and more similar landscape pattern metrics to the true landscape than other CA models tested. The land expansion analysis strategy also uncovered some underlying transition rules, such as that grassland is most likely to be found where it is not strongly impacted by human activities, and that deciduous forest areas tend to grow adjacent to arterial roads. We also projected the structure of land use under different optimizing scenarios for 2035 by combining the proposed model with multi-objective programming. The results indicate that the proposed model can help policymakers to manage future land use dynamics and so to realize more sustainable land use patterns for future development. Software for PLUS has been made available at https://github.com/HPSCIL/Patch-generating_Land_Use_Simulation_Model
