论文标题
银河系和M31质量的总和：无似然推理方法
The sum of the masses of the Milky Way and M31: a likelihood-free inference approach
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用密度估计无可能的推断，$λ$冷的暗物质模拟$ \ sim 2M $ Galaxy Pairs以及Gaia和Hubble Space望远镜的数据来推断银河系和仙女座（M31）星系的群众的总和，当地组的两个主要组成部分。该方法克服了传统计时论点的大部分近似值，使得不必要地写出理论可能性，并允许对数据和非高斯分布中相关性的观察错误的非线性建模。我们获得了$ M_ {200} $质量估计$ M _ {\ rm mw+m31} = 4.6^{+2.3} _ { - 1.8} \ times 10^{12} m _ {\ odot} $（$ 68 \％$ c.l.），与以前的估计相吻合，均为两个群体和两个群体，均为两个群体。该结果不仅是迄今为止两个质量总和的最可靠估计之一，而且还是仅具有一个参数和只有三个数据点的问题的可能性推断的例证。
We use Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference, $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter simulations of $\sim 2M$ galaxy pairs, and data from Gaia and the Hubble Space Telescope to infer the sum of the masses of the Milky Way and Andromeda (M31) galaxies, the two main components of the Local Group. This method overcomes most of the approximations of the traditional timing argument, makes the writing of a theoretical likelihood unnecessary, and allows the non-linear modelling of observational errors that take into account correlations in the data and non-Gaussian distributions. We obtain an $M_{200}$ mass estimate $M_{\rm MW+M31} = 4.6^{+2.3}_{-1.8} \times 10^{12} M_{\odot}$ ($68 \%$ C.L.), in agreement with previous estimates both for the sum of the two masses and for the individual masses. This result is not only one of the most reliable estimates of the sum of the two masses to date, but is also an illustration of likelihood-free inference in a problem with only one parameter and only three data points.
