论文标题

REAK:通过基于错误率的自适应Kriging分析可靠性分析

REAK: Reliability analysis through Error rate-based Adaptive Kriging

论文作者

Wang, Zeyu, Shafieezadeh, Abdollah

论文摘要

随着各个领域的模型变得越来越复杂,相关的计算需求已大大增加。当故障概率很小时,这些系统的可靠性分析非常具有挑战性,需要大量昂贵的模拟。为了应对这一挑战,本文通过基于错误率的自适应Kriging(REAK)介绍了可靠性分析。此处采用了基于Lindeberg条件的中央限制定理的扩展,以得出具有错误符号估算的设计样本数量的分布,并随后确定了故障概率估计值的最大错误率。此错误率使得在自适应方案的每个阶段都可以最佳地建立有效的采样区域,以进行战略生成设计样本。此外,它有助于为故障概率估计设定目标准确性,该估计用作可靠性分析的停止标准。这些功能可以大大减少对复杂的,计算苛刻的模型的呼叫数量。提出了REAK在四个示例中的应用,具有不同的非线性和维度。结果表明,与使用Monte Carlo模拟(AK-MCS)和改进的顺序Kriging可靠性分析(ISKRA)相比,REAK能够将计算需求降低至50%。

As models in various fields are becoming more complex, associated computational demands have been increasing significantly. Reliability analysis for these systems when failure probabilities are small is significantly challenging, requiring a large number of costly simulations. To address this challenge, this paper introduces Reliability analysis through Error rate-based Adaptive Kriging (REAK). An extension of the Central Limit Theorem based on Lindeberg condition is adopted here to derive the distribution of the number of design samples with wrong sign estimate and subsequently determine the maximum error rate for failure probability estimates. This error rate enables optimal establishment of effective sampling regions at each stage of an adaptive scheme for strategic generation of design samples. Moreover, it facilitates setting a target accuracy for failure probability estimation, which is used as stopping criterion for reliability analysis. These capabilities together can significantly reduce the number of calls to sophisticated, computationally demanding models. The application of REAK for four examples with varying extent of nonlinearity and dimension is presented. Results indicate that REAK is able to reduce the computational demand by as high as 50% compared to state-of-the-art methods of Adaptive Kriging with Monte Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) and Improved Sequential Kriging Reliability Analysis (ISKRA).

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