论文标题
时间的箭头和自定位概率
Time's Arrow and Self-Locating Probability
论文作者
论文摘要
物理基础中最困难的问题之一是引起时间的箭头。由于物理学的基本动力定律（本质上）是对称的，因此时间箭头的解释必须来自其他地方。一个有希望的解释引入了一种特殊的宇宙初始条件，现在称为过去的假设：宇宙以低渗透状态开始。不幸的是，在一个宇宙中，我们有很多副本（在遥远的“过去”或“遥远的“未来”）中，过去的假设还不够。我们还需要假设自定位（DE SE）概率。但是，我表明我们可以类似地使用自我定位概率来加强其竞争对手 - 波动假设，导致原则经验不确定性不确定性和根本性的认识论持怀疑态度。从通常的意义上说，不确定的意义是强大的，因为它通常没有通过对“经验连贯性”或“简单性”的诉求来解决。对于提供时间箭头的完全科学解释的愿景，这是一个严重的问题。
One of the most difficult problems in the foundations of physics is what gives rise to the arrow of time. Since the fundamental dynamical laws of physics are (essentially) symmetric in time, the explanation for time's arrow must come from elsewhere. A promising explanation introduces a special cosmological initial condition, now called the Past Hypothesis: the universe started in a low-entropy state. Unfortunately, in a universe where there are many copies of us (in the distant "past" or the distant "future"), the Past Hypothesis is not enough; we also need to postulate self-locating (de se) probabilities. However, I show that we can similarly use self-locating probabilities to strengthen its rival -- the Fluctuation Hypothesis, leading to in-principle empirical underdetermination and radical epistemological skepticism. The underdetermination is robust in the sense that it is not resolved by the usual appeal to 'empirical coherence' or 'simplicity.' That is a serious problem for the vision of providing a completely scientific explanation of time's arrow.
