论文标题

孤独恐怖分子的行为协会

Behavior Associations in Lone-Actor Terrorists

论文作者

Altay, Ayca, Baykal-Gürsoy, Melike, Hemmer, Pernille

论文摘要

在过去的20年中,个人或单一细胞进行的恐怖袭击已大大加速。这种恐怖主义被定义为孤独的恐怖主义,是我们时代最大的安全威胁之一。在过去的十年中,有关LA行为和特征的研究已经出现和加速。尽管这些研究已经提供了有关人口统计,行为,分类和警告标志的有价值的信息,但这些角色之间的关系尚未解决。此外,几十年来,激进和进攻的手段发生了变化。这项研究首先确定了LAS的25个二元行为特征,并分析了在三个不同数据库上记录的192个LAS。接下来,根据第一个意识形态进行分类,然后通过虚拟攻击者犯罪者游戏进行事件场景行为,最后,根据从数据中获得的群集。此外,在每个类别中,使用A-Priori算法提取具有统计学意义的关联和时间关系。这些关联将有助于确定攻击者类型并在正确的时间进行干预。结果表明,尽管9/11之前的LA大多是由环境中的人们激进的,但9/11 LAS之后的LA却更加多样化。此外,不同LA类型的关联链提出了暴力和攻击后行为的独特特征途径。

Terrorist attacks carried out by individuals or single cells have significantly accelerated over the last 20 years. This type of terrorism, defined as lone-actor (LA) terrorism, stands as one of the greatest security threats of our time. Research on LA behavior and characteristics has emerged and accelerated over the last decade. While these studies have produced valuable information on demographics, behavior, classifications, and warning signs, the relationship among these characters are yet to be addressed. Moreover, the means of radicalization and attacking have changed over decades. This study first identifies 25 binary behavioral characteristics of LAs and analyzes 192 LAs recorded on three different databases. Next, the classification is carried out according to first ideology, then to incident scene behavior via a virtual attacker-defender game, and, finally, according to the clusters obtained from the data. In addition, within each class, statistically significant associations and temporal relations are extracted using the A-priori algorithm. These associations would be instrumental in identifying the attacker type and intervene at the right time. The results indicate that while pre-9/11 LAs were mostly radicalized by the people in their environment, post-9/11 LAs are more diverse. Furthermore, the association chains for different LA types present unique characteristic pathways to violence and after-attack behavior.

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