论文标题
运输安全的汽油定价政策
Gasoline Pricing Policies for Transportation Safety
论文作者
论文摘要
经济因素可能会对运输崩溃趋势产生重大影响。这项研究对2007年至2016年在美国的零售汽油价格（包括州和联邦燃料税）与运输崩溃之间的关系进行了全面检查。关于汽车，自行车和行人致命崩溃的数据来自国家公路安全管理局（NHTSA）提供的死亡分析报告系统（FARS），汽油价格数据来自美国能源信息管理局（EIA）。随机效应负二项式回归模型用于估计通货膨胀调整后汽油价格对运输趋势致命崩溃的影响。 Initial results combined with results of previous studies showed that gender and transportation mean type (motorcycle, non-motorcycle, bicycle and pedestrian) play prominent roles in interpreting the final model, so by using random effect negative binomial regression, seven models are developed to evaluate the effects of gasoline price changes on total population, male, female, motorcyclists, non-motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians separately.我们的发现表明，上涨汽油价格不会显着改变致命崩溃的总数。但是，通过查看不同的车辆类型，据估计，调整后的汽油价格增加一美元与摩托车致命崩溃数量增加了24.2％，非摩托车致命崩溃数量减少了1.9％，行人致命的撞车事故数量减少了0.7％。同样，在汽油价格变化时，男性和女性之间没有明显的差异。
Economic factors can have substantial effects on transportation crash trends. This study makes a comprehensive examination of the relationship between the retail gasoline price (including state and federal fuel taxes) and transportation fatal crashes from 2007 to 2016 in the US. Data on motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian fatal crashes come from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) provided by the National Highway Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the gasoline price data is from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Random effect negative binomial regression models are used to estimate the impact of inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on trends of transportation fatal crashes. Initial results combined with results of previous studies showed that gender and transportation mean type (motorcycle, non-motorcycle, bicycle and pedestrian) play prominent roles in interpreting the final model, so by using random effect negative binomial regression, seven models are developed to evaluate the effects of gasoline price changes on total population, male, female, motorcyclists, non-motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians separately. Our findings suggest that increasing the gasoline prices will not significantly alter the number of total fatal crashes. However, by looking at different vehicle types, it is estimated that one dollar increase in adjusted gasoline price is associated with 24.2% increase in the number of motorcycle fatal crashes, 1.9% decrease in the number of non-motorcycle fatal crashes, and 0.7% decrease in the number of pedestrian fatal crashes. Also, there is no noticeable difference between male and female in response to the gasoline price changes.
